Growth in Crop Receipts Forecast for 2022

Crop cash receipts are forecast at $248.6 billion in 2022, an increase of $12.0 billion (5.1 percent) from the forecast for 2021 in nominal terms. Growth in receipts for corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton are forecast to account for almost all of the net increase, while receipts are expected to fall for fruits and nuts.

Corn receipts are forecast to increase by $3.4 billion (4.8 percent) in 2022, resulting from higher quantities sold. Soybean receipts in 2022 are expected to increase $4.6 billion (8.9 percent), as forecasted growth in quantities sold should outweigh effects of lower prices. Cotton receipts are forecast to increase by $2.5 billion (33.8 percent), driven by growth in both prices and quantities sold. Expected growth in quantities sold should result in a gain in wheat receipts; they are forecast $1.2 billion (10.6 percent) higher in 2022.

Vegetable and melon cash receipts are expected to grow by $0.4 billion (2.5 percent) in 2022, as higher forecasted prices should outweigh a decline in quantities sold. This increase includes a rise of $0.2 billion (6.1 percent) in potato receipts. Cash receipts for fruits and nuts are expected to fall $1.2 billion (4.8 percent) in 2022, as the effects of falling prices should be larger than growth in quantities sold.

Animal/Animal Product Receipts Forecast to Increase in 2022

Total animal/animal product cash receipts are expected to increase $17.4 billion (8.9 percent in nominal terms) to $213.3 billion in 2022. Growth in receipts is forecast for milk, cattle and calves, and broilers, while hog receipts are expected to decline.

Milk receipts are expected to increase $9.3 billion (22.1 percent) in 2022, mostly due to expectations for strong price growth. Similarly, forecasted higher prices should drive an increase of $6.2 billion (8.5 percent) in receipts for cattle and calves. Lower prices are expected to result in a decline of $2.8 billion (10.3 percent) in hog cash receipts in 2022.

Broiler receipts are expected to increase $4.0 billion (12.3 percent) in 2022, mostly due to higher expected prices. Receipts for turkeys and chicken egg cash receipts are each forecast to increase 3 percent in 2022 relative to 2021 in nominal terms but fall when adjusted for inflation.

Expected Growth in Prices and Quantities Sold Raise 2022 Cash Receipts Forecast

To better understand the factors underlying the forecast change in annual receipts from 2021 to 2022, we separate the change into two distinct effects: a “price effect” where we project the change in cash receipts associated with holding the quantity sold constant at 2021 levels and allowing prices to change to forecast 2022 levels, and a “quantity effect” where prices are held constant from 2021 and quantities change to forecast 2022 levels. In 2022, both increasing prices and quantities sold are expected to have positive effects on cash receipts. Overall, crop and livestock sector cash receipts are forecast to increase $29.3 billion in 2022, with an estimated positive price effect of $14.3 billion, and a projected positive quantity effect of $14.0 billion. In addition, an upward shift of $1.1 billion is from forecasts for commodities whose price and quantity effects cannot be separately determined. As discussed above, we do find divergence in these effects by commodity group. Price effects on cash receipts for livestock commodities are positive, while quantity effects are slightly negative. Conversely, quantity effects on cash receipts for crops are positive, while price effects are negative.

Direct Government Farm Payments Forecast to Decrease in 2022

Direct Government farm program payments are those made by the Federal Government to farmers and ranchers with no intermediaries. Typically, most direct payments to farmers and ranchers are administered by the USDA under the Farm Bill or other authorities. Direct payments can also be from ad hoc and supplemental programs authorized by Congress. Government payments do not include Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) indemnity payments (listed as a separate component of farm income) and USDA loans (listed as a liability in the farm sector’s balance sheet). After reaching a record high of $45.7 billion in 2020, direct Government farm program payments are forecast to decrease to $27.1 billion in 2021 and to decrease further to $11.7 billion in 2022. This overall decrease in 2021 and 2022 reflects lower anticipated payments from supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance, mainly direct payments from COVID-19-related assistance programs.

Production Expenses Forecast to Increase in 2022

Farm sector production expenses—including expenses associated with operator dwellings—are forecast to increase by $20.1 billion (5.1 percent) to reach $411.6 billion in 2022. This follows a 9.4 percent increase in nominal expenses in 2021. If these forecasts are realized, 2022 production expenses would be the highest since 2015 yet still 11.1 percent below the 2014 peak in inflation-adjusted terms.

Nearly all expense categories are forecast to rise during the year, with the most significant increases in nominal terms for the following categories:

• Feed expenses, the largest single expense category, are forecast to increase in 2022 by $3.9 billion (6.1 percent) in nominal terms to $68.9 billion because of higher prices for feed commodities.

• Fertilizer-lime-soil conditioner expenses are forecast to increase by $3.4 billion (12.0 percent) in nominal terms to $31.9 billion.

Among the main expense categories, seed expenses are expected to remain unchanged, while the net rent to landlords is expected to decline by $1.2 billion (6.6 percent) to $17.6 billion, in nominal terms.

Source: USDA

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The rapidly evolving carbon credit market is a potential revenue channel for farmers in which they can also contribute to the solution for climate change alongside feeding the world’s growing population.

“Carbon sequestration’s revenue potential for farmers through carbon credits incentivizes adoption, investment, and innovation for the betterment of our climate,”

said Louisa Parker-Smith, AGCO’s Global Sustainability Director.

“With half of the earth’s vegetated land employed in agriculture and abundant soil carbon sequestration potential, it’s understandable that the Ag supply potential is over 30 times today’s total credit demand. However, we expect to see carbon-offset credit demand increase exponentially as surrounding markets mature and companies such as Apple and BP work towards self-imposed climate neutrality deadlines. We are undertaking this research to help create a clear path for farmers to successfully harness the revenue potential and climate benefits of biologic carbon sequestration through cover cropping and other regenerative agriculture practices,”

said Darren Goebel, AGCO’s Global Agronomy and Farm Solutions Director.

“We are confident that these trials will demonstrate easy and cost-effective ways to add these practices into existing crop systems.”

AGCO’s Global Agronomy team is collaborating with the company’s global brands to drive research trials at the Martin Richenhagen Future Farm in Zambia, Africa, and the Swiss Future Farm in Tänikon, Switzerland, as well as several sites in the U.S. and Denmark. The studies focus on best practices for cover crop planting timing (before, during or after harvest), termination methods, species selection, and tillage systems to maximize carbon stores.

Watch the video of AGCO Agronomist Jens Christian Jensen’s visit with Steffen Decker, a fourth-generation farmer at Stydinggaard near Styding, Denmark, to learn about his experience with cover cropping over the last 10 years. The research trials are one component of AGCO’s new sustainability strategy, which includes a focus area on-farm solutions for soil health and carbon capture.

“Our goal is to make regenerative agriculture attainable for farmers. As part of our new strategy, we’re conducting these research trials to inform the development of new products to support soil health and carbon management. We’re committed to supporting farmers as part of the solution to the global challenge of climate change.”

said Parker-Smith.

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Since the foundation of HORSCH LEEB 9 years ago, plant protection has been a sales driver. Due to excelling technical innovations like the prize-winning boom control system BoomControl and a lot of customer-specific adaption options HORSCH is able to provide every customer with the optimum product for his requirements. This year, the Leeb 12 TD that was announced at the Agritechnica show has been working in the field all over Europe for the first time. With this sprayer HORSCH enters the market of trailed sprayers with an extremely high capacity of 12,000 litres and extends the technology of the Leeb LT and GS to a new dimension. The Leeb TD is interesting for large farms, farms that have to cover large distances or for farmers who because of their crops require high application rates. It is equipped with an innovative tandem axle and a two-tank system that always distributes the load intelligently even on slopes to make sure that the traction at the rear axle of the tractor is always optimum.

If you also add the technology for mechanical population management like the new harrows Cura ST or the hoes Transformer VF for regenerative farming, HORSCH is one of the manufacturers with the largest own product range in the whole plant protection sector. Even if the share of mechanical population management surely will continue to increase – driven by social discussions and legal stipulations – traditional plant protection technology will still play a major role in professional farming.

Source: HORSCH

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Farming Simulator is a farming simulation video game played by millions of fans worldwide. It has its own gaming communities and e-sport league with tournaments across Europe. Highly engaged fans play the game to run and develop farms by growing crops and breeding livestock.

The following Vicon implements will be part of the extension package:

• Vicon FastBale
• Vicon Andex 1304 PRO Rake
• Vicon EXTRA 7100T Disc Mower
• Vicon EXTRA 732FT Disc Mower
• Vicon BW 2850 Bale Wrapper

Source: Vicon

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