“Total harvested area of wheat in Canada is expected to increase 9.4% from 2017, to 24.3 million acres in 2018,” Statistics Canada said. “Total yields at the national level are expected to fall 11.5%, from an average of 49.6 bushels per acre in 2017 to 43.9 bushels per acre in 2018.”
From 2012 to 2016 – total production
From 2012 to 2018 – production change
Lower yields due to adverse weather in Canada are expected to reduce 2018 production of all major grains except durum and barley, including all wheat down 3.3% and canola down 10%, Statistics Canada said in its first survey-based crop forecast of the season.
“Wheat conditions, including lower-than-average precipitation in several parts of Canada, are expected to drive down production and lower anticipated yields for some crops,” Statistics Canada said in its Production of principal field crops, July 2018 report released Aug. 31. “In addition, high temperatures in some areas may have contributed to an expected decrease in production and average yields for some crops.”
Production of all wheat was forecast at 28.987 million tonnes, down 996,900 tonnes, or 3.3%, from 29.984 million tonnes in 2017, Stats Canada said. Spring wheat other than durum was forecast at 21.559 million tonnes, down 607,300 tonnes, or 2.7%, from 22.167 million tonnes last year. Winter wheat outturn was estimated at 2.394 million tonnes, down 461,100 tonnes, or 16%, from 2.855 million tonnes in 2017.
But durum production was forecast at 5.034 million tonnes, up 71,500 tonnes, or 1.4%, from 4.962 million tonnes last year.
Provincially, all wheat production in top-producing Saskatchewan was forecast at 12.8 million tonnes, down 0.8% from 12.9 million tonnes last year, due to a forecast 13.5% increase in harvested area in 2018 more than offset by a 13% reduction in average yield.